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I would prefer life sciences, hardware or deep tech startups over gig and saas

As someone who actually used both Cepheid and Truenat systems during COVID (I work in hospital administration), there are significant differences. Cepheid is more user-friendly with fully integrated cartridges but costs 3-4x more per test. Truenat requires more manual steps but is much more cost-effective. In wealthy countries, Cepheid wins easily. In resource-limited settings, Truenat has a massive advantage. The question for investors is where the growth will come from. If Molbio stays focused on emerging markets, they could build a sustainable business. If they try to compete head-on with Cepheid in developed markets, they'll likely fail. Their valuation assumes they'll succeed everywhere, which is unrealistic.

I invested in three biotech IPOs during the COVID bubble. All of them had "revolutionary technology" and "massive TAM" stories. All three are down 70%+ from IPO price. The problem with biotech investing is that retail investors can't properly evaluate the technical claims or regulatory pathways. We're relying on management projections, which are always optimistic for IPOs. What concerns me about Molbio is the timing - they could have gone public during their COVID revenue peak but didn't. Why now? Likely because they've seen their peak and want to cash out while the story still sounds good. Hard pass from me.

As someone who works in clinical diagnostics, I think people are missing what makes Molbio special. Their Truenat platform is genuinely revolutionary for developing markets. Traditional PCR requires stable electricity, climate control, and trained technicians. Truenat works on battery power in rural settings. This is why WHO endorsed it for TB testing - it brings molecular diagnostics to places Cepheid can't reach cost-effectively. Yes, COVID inflated their numbers, but their base business is solving a real problem. That said, 22,000Cr valuation is steep. I'd consider buying post-IPO after the inevitable correction, but the underlying technology has legs beyond the hype.

Let's be real - Molbio's revenue chart is essentially a COVID bubble, not a sustainable growth story. Yes, they went from 51Cr to 1,272Cr, but then immediately fell back to 332Cr post-pandemic. That's a 74% revenue DROP in just two years. Their projected 1,200Cr for FY25 sounds suspiciously convenient for IPO timing - I'd be extremely skeptical of those projections. The valuation of 22,000-24,000Cr is about 20x their projected revenue, which is absurdly high for a biotech hardware company with this much volatility. For comparison, traditional medtech companies trade at 3-5x revenue. This has all the hallmarks of trying to cash in before the growth story falls apart. I'm staying far away from this one.