Post on Medial
Jayant Mundhra
•
Dexter Capital Advisors • 4m
Navi’s 10x jump in UPI is no big deal 🙏🙏 Many social media posts have already declared Sachin Bansal-led Navi the next big thing in UPI. Why? It stormed from 3mn UPI transactions in March to 30mn in May. But, to be honest, that’s pretty naive. Here’s all you should know! .. 1️⃣ The growth has already plumetted. In April, Navi went from 3mn to 15mn transactions in a month. That was a 5x jump. But, in May, the figure simply doubled to 30mn. And that only translates to 0.2% market share. .. 2️⃣ Just have a look at who is still ahead of Navi- WhatsApp Pay. Amazon Pay. -> Amazon Pay’s growth peaked in 2022 and has since been hovering around the same levels, with much less than 1% market share -> And WhatsApp Pay? Much worse. Only has a marginal lead over Navi despite massive distribution might which is probably unlike any other on the planet Both these platforms also saw rapid scale-up before they hit the ceiling and have been there ever since. Thus, this is where Navi’s real test begins. .. 3️⃣ Will it become just another Cred in UPI? -> Cred got to where Navi is right now a year ago, witnessing a similar growth -> Since then though, UPI on Cred has slowed down remarkably, with just 2x growth in the last year -> And even if we take value of transactions done on Cred, the market share has gone from 1.5% to 2.3% .. Now one may say, that 2.3% is a respectable share. But take into account the fact that in value terms, much of the transactions on the platform are about credit card bill payments, which naturally have high ticket sizes. Thus, the true share would be much lower 📛📛 .. Let’s be clear. Navi’s UPI market share is 0.2%! Perspective matters! Big respects to Sachin and team Navi. But, the movement from here on will be the real determinant of success in UPI. What do you think?
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