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Ankush Sharma
Business Consultant ...ย โขย 5m
Why Renewable Power Producers Are Quietly Losing Money Every Day Solar and wind are booming. Open Access is thriving. But beneath the optimism, there's a silent revenue killer in the clean energy business: ๐ Forecasting failure. Most IPPs, EPCs, and aggregators are losing lakhsโsometimes croresโwithout realizing the root cause: poor visibility into future generation. The Hidden Impact Every time your day-ahead schedule misses actual generation, penalties hit. Every time you under- or over-bid in the real-time market, moneyโs left on the table. Every time a storm or cloud cover disrupts your estimate, you're reactingโnot optimizing. The problem isnโt just bad luck. Itโs a broken system. What's Not Working Most players rely on: Free weather APIs + Excel Static SCADA data Generic third-party forecasts These tools donโt learn. They donโt adapt. They donโt understand your site's performance curve, inverter behavior, or soiling losses. Worst of allโthey donโt connect to your revenue model. Result? Conservative trading. Excess penalties. Lost opportunities. EPCs Are Suffering Too EPC firms under O&M or performance guarantees are being held accountable for yield without control over accurate forecasting. They get penalized for nature's variability without the tools to predict it. Forecasting Is Now Strategic This is no longer about complianceโitโs about cash flow and competitive advantage. Trading desks need forecast precision to bid confidently Operators need foresight to avoid curtailment EPCs need insights to meet SLAs and defend performance In a high-renewable grid, itโs not the largest who win. Itโs those who see ahead, adapt fast, and act smart. Hard Questions You Should Be Asking Whatโs your current forecast deviation rate? How much are you paying in DSM or imbalance charges? Can your existing tools handle monsoon or volatile generation patterns? Do you make trading and scheduling decisions based on actual intelligenceโor educated guesswork? If youโre not sure, youโre likely bleeding quietly. Forecasting isnโt a weather problemโitโs a revenue protection strategy. Those who embrace it today will lead the energy market tomorrow.
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