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It’s one of those rare instances when AMUL’s top man (Jayen Mehta) has got me a little worried about his plans 🙏🙏 In the last few days, Sir has expressed optimism about what Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs mean for Indian dairy exports. He has made a case that: - Nearly 50% of the US dairy exports are to places in India's vicinity, including West Asia, North Africa, China, Southeast Asia, Sub Saharan Africa, Japan, and South Korea - Biggest of them, China has imposed 34% retaliatory tariffs on dairy imports from the US and many more countries are expected to follow These markets will need alternate suppliers, for which AMUL is ready and roaring, as per Jayen Sir. .. All of this SOUNDS great. After all, India is the world’s largest milk producer at 230mn tonnes in 2024 (NDDB). But this ‘win’ for dairy farmers spells disaster for crores of Indian households already crushed by skyrocketing milk prices. Here’s the ugly truth: - India’s milk production growth is slowing-down. It crashed to a measly 1% in 2023 from a 5-6% annual average pre-2022 (Department of Animal Husbandry). And 2024 is widely reported to have remained a measly growth year - Meanwhile, costs are spiraling. Fodder prices jumped 20% since 2022, and as per NABARD’s official stats, lumpy skin disease killed ~97k cattle in 2022 alone, slashing yields Result? Procurement prices for dairies like Amul have (as per news reports) almost doubled from Rs 18/litre pre-Covid to Rs 36/litre in 2023, forcing retail milk prices up 15-18% - from Rs 50 to Rs 70/litre in just about 4yrs 🙏🙏 .. With that context, imagine boosting exports. Pushing more exports - say, to China or Southeast Asia - will shrink our already strained and slow-growing supply while demand continues to be gangbusters in domestic market. - More exports mean even less milk at home, driving prices higher. With demand projected at 274 million tonnes by 2032 (Fortune Business Insights), we need a 5mn tonne annual increase—double the current pace. We’re nowhere close! - Yes, exports could bring in millions of dollars annually, boosting dairy farmers and giants like AMUL. But, crores of households, already paying much higher sums for milk, paneer, curd, and ghee, will suffer Thus, as good as it sounds, India’s dairy isn’t ready to ‘feed the world’ when our own people are struggling. Unless production growth increases, this export dream is a nightmare for consumers.