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Jayant Mundhra

ย โ€ขย 

Dexter Capital Advisorsย โ€ขย 3m

This whole brokerage reports biz is such a big stock market scam nobody talks about ๐Ÿ“›๐Ÿ“› In the latest such instance, US-based brokerage called RBC Capital has come out with a very bullish report on Elon Muskโ€™s Tesla. And this brokerage has valued Tesla's completely idea-stage robotaxi business idea at a staggering $879 billion based on a 2040 revenue forecast. How? They're projecting future revenue decades away, slapping a 10 times multiple on it like some magical wand, and then discounting it back at a 7.5% rate to today. Iโ€™ll be maintaining my grace if I call this preposterous hyper-astronomical BS. .. And this is a widespread scam across brokerages worldwide, including those that operate in Indian stock markets -> So many instances, where they tell you share price targets for 2030, 2035, or even beyond, with the same reckless abandon for reality Let me illustrate with a recent example. .. In Sep, Goldman Sachs & Bank of America had released very bullish research reports which gave Ola Electric a target of Rs 160 and Rs 145 respectively. On what basis? A guesstimate basis which they had managed to project 1> How many of Olaโ€™s present-day and future scooter models, and the yet to be launched motorcycles and auto rickshaws and cars will continue to sell every year till FY30 2> At what price points and margins these will be sold, and with what subsidy support from the Govt (if any at all by that year) Using those guesstimates, the analysts involved had gone as far as to say that Ola Electric would: 1> EBITDA breakeven by FY27 2> Hit EBITDA margin of 12% by FY30 3> Be free cash flow breakeven by FY30 4> Deliver return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27% 5> And achieve a revenue growth of over 40% CAGR from FY24 to FY30 .. These brokerages conjure up numbers out of thin air, completely disregarding geopolitical shifts, domestic policy changes, or even the potential obsolescence of the technology they're betting on. What if there's a global economic downturn? Or what if a breakthrough technology renders these vehicles obsolete? These projections are dangerously delusional. -> And of course, they discount the endless things that could go wrong with the business itself in so many years ahead -> It's like predicting the weather for next month based on today's sunshine -> They are literally rigging the markets, pumping and dumping stocks And the sad part is, there are no repercussions. ..

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