Back

Here’s what’s brewing on the West Coast which no one talks loud enough: two major oil refineries—Phillips 66 in L.A. and Valero in Benicia—are shutting down. Not maybe. Not one day. Confirmed. Dates are set. End of 2025 for Phillips 66, and Spring 2026 for Valero. Together, they chop off about 20% of California’s in-state refining capacity. One-fifth. Gone. Poof. Aint just some number floating in the oil-slicked air. That’s your wallet screaming, and your weekend trips shrinking. California drivers already live in a different fuel reality. While most of the U.S. cruises along paying $3-something a gallon, folks in L.A. and San Francisco shell out 40–50% more. That’s right. You're basically driving a Tesla and still feeling broke. And now, with these refinery closures looming, the gas price meter’s about to get high—like, “should I sell my car?” high. USC’s forecast models—not some random blog guessing—predict $6.43/gal by late 2025, and up to $8.43/gal by the end of 2026. That’s a 75% increase. This isn’t hyperbole. its the curve we’re riding if things play out without a Plan B. Let’s get real for a sec: this aint just about shutting down old facilities. Refineries are the lifeblood of stable fuel pricing. They don’t just produce gas—they stabilize the market. Less local refining = more imports. More imports = more dependency, delays, excuses, and middlemen. And if anything goes sideways globally (which, let’s face it, it always does)—a ship stuck somewhere, a port delay, a regional conflict—California’s entire fuel supply gets thrown off. Boom. Gas spikes overnight. It’s not theory. It’s what happened in 2022 and 2023 when even minor disruptions sent prices skyrocketing. Ah yes, the planners. There are experts saying this won’t be that bad. Some believe price hikes can be contained to 5-10 cents per gallon—if everything is managed perfectly, if imports are seamless, if demand magically drops. Let’s be honest: when has “everything going perfectly” been a California specialty? There’s a reason people panic-buy when they hear the word “shortage.” Volatility is baked into this. If even one link in the supply chain stumbles, we’re talking $7+ per gallon within weeks. This isn’t pessimism. It’s patterns. Start preparing. Budget smarter. If you’ve been flirting with the idea of switching to hybrid or EV, this might just be your sign. Not because it’s trendy—but because it might soon be the only way to stay sane at the pump. And for policymakers reading this: talk to the people. Don’t just send us PR-approved energy transition plans while quietly pulling 20% of refining power offline. The public deserves honesty, not surprise hikes and gas station shock. They’ll keep calling it a “transition.” But for everyday folks, this is starting to feel more like a blindfolded shuffle into uncertainty. Don’t get caught unprepared. Fuel up—not just your tank, but your awareness. Follow for more grounded, unfiltered of what's really going on