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Jayant Mundhra

ย โ€ขย 

Dexter Capital Advisorsย โ€ขย 26d

Hard facts & reality check - India operates ~8GW of nuclear power, and intends to reach 22GW by 2032 and 100GW by 2047 ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ China, on the other hand, has 56GW now, is announcing minimum 10GW of fresh new reactors every year, and is aiming for 200GW by 2035. By 2035 Chinaโ€™s capacity will be double the size of where we wish to be another 12 years after that. .. One might say China and India have different nuclear power needs, and I agree. So consider this. India is still building 2nd generation nuclear reactors. Meanwhile, much of Chinaโ€™s reactors are 3rd generation ones. And, in 2023, China unveiled its first 4th generation nuclear reactor ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ And this has all been achieved in just about 20 years. Yep - Trust me, China and India were largely at the same stand just 20yrs ago. India has come far. But, while we have moved 10 steps in these 20yrs, China has gone 75! We must acknowledge these realities and scale up investments and ambitions for 2032 and 2047. .. Think this way: China today has more reactors in construction than the rest of the world put together. Result? It's nuclear power setup costs a third of the USโ€™s. And itโ€™s ahead of or at par with the US in technology. Outcome? Itโ€™s actively exporting nuclear reactors with a 2030 goal to build 30 reactors abroad and earn ~$145bn out of it. Meanwhile, India spends more to build a lower generation reactor - As bad as it may feel, this is the HARSH TRUTH ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ .. And it gets worse. See, India has 8GW nuclear power capacity, for which it uses ~450 tons of uranium, of which ~100 tons is imported every year. Meanwhile, in 2024, China almost achieved self-sufficiency in uranium sourcing to feed its 56GW nuclear power capacity. And a big boost there came from a single uranium enrichment plant built in Lanzhou, which produces 3k tons annually. Thatโ€™s 7x what India uses each year, where a significant portion is still imported ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ .. My point is, we are behind in scale, ambition, tech, costs and also on raw material which feeds the reactors which gets built anyway. Thus, donโ€™t take this as a rant. Take it as a young Indian asking fellow Indians, elders and younger alike, to have conversations about where we really stand and whether we are plugging the gap with the world. Otherwise, we can never really ask or expect better of our political leadership, and our future as a country ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™ I wrote a massive newsletter, covering Chinaโ€™s nuclear energy sector, where you will find all the details I shared above, and a lot more. This one was published some time ago.

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