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Jayant Mundhra

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Dexter Capital Advisors • 2d

It’s really strange how ATHER is moving just weeks ahead of the much-awaited IPO. So much is not adding up 🙏🙏 And I am a tad bit nervous - What if there is more than what’s known to the public? Let me explain in depth. .. You see, Ather last raised funds at $1.3bn valuation in August 2024. - In September, it filed DRHP, aiming for a $2.5bn IPO (as per news reports) - With markets starting to correct, it was reported that the target valuation had been scaled down to $2.4bn But, markets corrected. Thus, the company planned to list this month and target a valuation of $1.2-$1.6 bn. A steep drop. .. And now, thanks to Trump and his impact on the global markets, listing is said to have been moved to May (next month). - However, what’s more important is that, according to news reports, the company is also said to have brought down the target valuation, yet again, by about 10% or so - Also, the funds to be raised have been slashed to Rs 3k crore vs Rs 4k crore before Thus, if you think from the perspective of a potential incoming investor, a company facing so many issues with back-to-back cuts on valuation and the fundraise size so close to the IPO - This doesn’t look good. Rather, the company is desperate to list as soon as possible. Of course, I can be wrong in my assessment. However, I believe that a company’s rush to list AT ANY COST does not inspire confidence. .. Nobody knows for sure what’s the reason here. Though, one of the reasons is publicly known. The company has been assured of rich incentives from Maharashtra Govt (nobody knows what), given they begin construction of the proposed new plant in Aurangabad in the committed timeline (again, nobody knows what). - For this, though, the company needs cash, which it is somewhat short on. Thus, either it needs to borrow or raise equity funding - And the company is aiming to use Rs 927 crore from the IPO proceeds for this But, is that a big enough reason for the company to gulp down such drastic cuts to the valuation and list anyhow, because it would also dilute the shareholding of all shareholders significantly, including the founders who anyways now own a very small share. Thus, as an individual, I am not able to understand how all of this adds up, unless there is more than what meets the eye - THE PUBLIC EYE. What do you think?

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