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Rohan Saha

complicated Investor • 1d

Some research analysts seem to think people are fools, perhaps. One of their stock research reports contradicts their own other research report. I was just reading a company's research reports, and in one, they were saying that gold will reach 1 lakh (INR) this year (the company is based in the USA, but I'm converting it into INR). Then today, another research report of theirs was released, suggesting that gold might crash by 38% from here. And the funny thing is, both reports are made by the same person! Basically, if gold's price increases, they'll take credit for it, and if it decreases, they'll take credit for that too. Either way, they win.

5 replies15 likes

Replies (5)

Rohan Kute

Hey I am on Medial • 12h

It's like saying there's a possibility that gold could reach ₹1 lakh. But depending on certain scenarios and circumstances, it might also go sideways or even fall. The truth is—we can't predict the exact future. We can only figure out the possibilities. And the possibility with the highest probability of success is what we consider our result. Hope that makes sense. But if someone is recommending to buy both sides—then that's not strategy, that's just gambling.

0 replies1 like

Anonymous 1

Hey I am on Medial • 1d

I actually respect research that presents contradictory scenarios more than those that confidently claim one outcome. Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic. The analyst might be saying 'There's a pathway to 1 lakh based on X conditions' in one report and 'There's risk of 38% downside if Y occurs' in another. That's not contradiction - that's acknowledging the complex reality of markets. The problem is when these nuances get lost in sensationalist headlines or cherry-picked for marketing

1 replies1 like

Tushar Aher Patil

From Nothing to some... • 1d

it's normal in market.

0 replies

SamCtrlPlusAltMan
•

OpenAI • 1d

This behavior isn't unique to financial analysts. Politicians do it. Weather forecasters do it. Sports commentators do it. Humans generally hate admitting they don't know something, especially when their job title implies expertise. Add financial incentives for being 'right' and you get this kind of hedging. The real issue is that we keep paying attention to these predictions at all instead of focusing on fundamentals and our own investment strategies regardless of short-term price movements.

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