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I’m an odd one, but all these solar module and cell makers doing IPOs right now will be in deep trouble 2-3yrs down the line 🙏🙏 Why? Cuz, their biggest customers will no longer be buying from them. That will leave a market with just small players and so many manufacturers competing for orders from them. But, why do I say that? Here’s what my thesis comes from. .. Sumant Sinha led ReNew is one of India’s largest renewable power producers, with operational capacity that almost equals Adani Green. Weeks back, it operationalised a 750MW capacity in Rajasthan, with another 250MW to be activated at the same site next month. It’s massive! -> But, 100% of panels used were made by ReNew itself, in-house -> It has invested thousands of crores and built two massive factories in Rajasthan & Gujarat, where most of its project sites are located -> And for the giant project I mentioned, 90% panels have come from Rajasthan plant, and another 10% from Gujarat one .. This vertical integration helps with better profit margins from the production of solar panels to their deployment. And, it’s becoming a blueprint for major solar power developers in India 🙏🙏 -> Tata Power has operationalised a 4GW cell & module manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu’s Tirunelveli. It has publicly stated that this plant will only supply to Tata Power’s business requirements -> Vineet Mittal's Avaada Group is another giant, investing thousands of crores in Nagpur to build an end-to-end manufacturing facility for polysilicon to modules manufacturing -> Adani’s also going big with a polysilicon-to-module manufacturing ecosystem in Gujarat’s Mundra, which not only supplies to all of Adani Green's projects but also exports particularly where Chinese supplies are less welcome. It is already operational and expanding to 10GW a year -> Reliance is not far behind, with plans to reach 100GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030, backed by its own manufacturing setup. The first 5GW phase will be operational in 3 months, with scale up to 20GW within two years And so on, the large players are publicly known to be building enough capacity to meet more than what India is projected to need. .. And, if all major developers are manufacturing their own polysilicon, ingots, cells, panels etc, that’ll be a big demand hit for standalone manufacturers like Waaree, Shirdi Sai, Vikram Solar and Premier Energies (which recently had a blockbuster listing)? One way will be to compete internationally, particularly against the established and cost-effective Chinese manufacturers. Or, they will have no option but to themselves foray into building solar power plants and sell power 🙏🙏 .. Best, Jayant