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MFs accumulate capital goods, rate-cut beneficiaries in May

Economic Times

Economic Times · 1m ago

MFs accumulate capital goods, rate-cut beneficiaries in May

In May, equity mutual funds saw lower inflows as investors booked profits amidst a rising Nifty 50. Fund managers shifted focus to large-cap companies, capitalizing on lower prices in the capital goods sector like GE Vernova and BHEL, due to a promising power sector outlook. Additionally, the anticipation of increased consumer loan demand influenced selective buying in NBFCs and HFCs. Major funds also acquired stocks like Eternal and Swiggy after significant price corrections.

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Daily Voice: Fed funds rate cut likely either in March or April policy meeting, says this portfolio manager

Money Control

Money Control · 1y ago

Daily Voice: Fed funds rate cut likely either in March or April policy meeting, says this portfolio manager

According to Ashwini Shami, the Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager of OmniScience Capital, the Federal Reserve may announce the first rate cut in its April-end meeting due to recent US economic data. However, Shami suggests that the rate cut could even take place in the March meeting itself, given the consistent downward trend of the US core PCE number. Shami also highlights that sectors such as private and public sector banks, power, IT, and infrastructure offer good investment opportunities at discounted valuations.

With rate cuts on the horizon, is it too late to invest in debt mutual funds?

Money Control

Money Control · 9m ago

With rate cuts on the horizon, is it too late to invest in debt mutual funds?

Indian debt mutual funds have become attractive to investors due to significant inflows from foreign institutional investors and the expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The bond markets have already rallied with the rate cut expectation, leading to higher returns for long-duration bond funds, dynamic bond funds, and gilt funds. Fund managers have increased the durations of their portfolios, positioning themselves for further gains when the rate-cut cycle begins. While longer-duration bonds offer potential returns in a falling interest rate environment, the 1-3 year corporate bond segment may become attractive following the initial rate cut.

Will Fed rate cuts drive fund flows into emerging markets?

Money Control

Money Control · 10m ago

Will Fed rate cuts drive fund flows into emerging markets?

Domestic fund inflows in Indian equities have successfully offset the decline in foreign portfolio investments. As the US Federal Reserve prepares to cut its policy rate, the interest rate gap between US and Indian bonds is expected to widen. While this may potentially lead to capital outflows from the US into emerging markets, it remains uncertain whether this will drive inflows into emerging market equities. The argument for such flows has been unclear, but the possibility still exists.

Retail inflation hits over 6-year low of 2.10% in June; WPI turns negative

Economic Times

Economic Times · 25d ago

Retail inflation hits over 6-year low of 2.10% in June; WPI turns negative

India's retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, driven by a sharp decline in food prices, according to official data. The inflation rate now borders the lower end of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2-6%, prompting speculation about a potential rate cut. Meanwhile, the Wholesale Price Index turned negative, with food inflation moving into deflationary territory and a decline in fuel and manufactured goods prices.

India’s IT sector much-awaited moment has arrived: the US Fed’s rate cut

Livemint

Livemint · 10m ago

India’s IT sector much-awaited moment has arrived: the US Fed’s rate cut

The US Federal Reserve's half percentage point interest rate cut could benefit India's IT services sector, as it may encourage companies to increase their technology spending. The US is the largest market for India's IT services industry. Fortune 500 companies, which are clients of Indian IT services providers, have previously reduced their spending on non-essential technology. However, the rate cut is expected to revive demand for IT services. Indian IT stocks dropped on Wednesday ahead of the US rate decision, with the Nifty IT Index falling to a two-week low.

Fed seen nearly as likely to cut rates by 50 bps as 25 bps

Livemint

Livemint · 10m ago

Fed seen nearly as likely to cut rates by 50 bps as 25 bps

Financial markets are indicating a higher chance of the Federal Reserve delivering a larger interest-rate cut at its policy meeting next week rather than a more standard reduction. While a quarter-point cut is still considered the slightly more probable outcome, futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now suggest a 47% chance of a half-percentage point reduction. Traders are betting that the US central bank may make a more aggressive move to counteract the weakening labor market.

Power, infra, clean tech among top FY25 themes for this fund manager

Money Control

Money Control · 1y ago

Power, infra, clean tech among top FY25 themes for this fund manager

Ashwini Shami, EVP and portfolio manager at OmniScience Capital, predicts that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will follow the lead of the US Federal Reserve and may make a necessary policy decision in response to a potential rate cut by the Fed in May or June. Shami believes that consumer staples are overpriced compared to other sectors like banking, infrastructure, and power, which offer better growth potential at lower valuations. While the rural market may benefit temporarily from higher economic activities during elections, Shami does not expect it to outperform the overall economy. He suggests that investors consider adding gold to their portfolios for stability and protection against inflation, but views equities as a more attractive investment option. Shami also highlights the long-term growth opportunities in the IT sector due to digital transformation and the availability of digital talent in India. As for the RBI repo rate, Shami expects any rate cuts to be driven by the actions of other central banks, particularly the US Fed. He identifies power, banking, infrastructure, NBFCs, and clean tech as top investment themes for FY25.

As RBI relents on policy stance, what is the outlook for Indian equities?

Money Control

Money Control · 10m ago

As RBI relents on policy stance, what is the outlook for Indian equities?

the MPC meeting, several factors were considered that led to the change in policy stance: 1. Economic slowdown: The Indian economy has been facing a slowdown, with GDP growth falling to its lowest level in recent years. The rate cut is expected to provide a boost to the economy and revive growth. 2. Inflation outlook: The inflation rate has remained well within the RBI's target range, providing room for a rate cut. Lower interest rates can help stimulate consumption and investment, driving inflation higher. 3. Global factors: Weak global growth and uncertainty due to trade tensions have also influenced the decision. The RBI believes that a rate cut could help counter potential external risks and support domestic demand. 4. Liquidity conditions: The banking system has been facing liquidity constraints, which have impacted credit flow in the economy. The rate cut is expected to improve liquidity conditions and make credit more easily available. 5. Policy transmission: Despite previous rate cuts, the benefits were not fully passed on to borrowers. The RBI expects that a change in policy stance will encourage banks to transmit the rate cut to borrowers more effectively. 6. Market expectations: Market participants were anticipating a rate cut, and the change in policy stance aligns with these expectations. This move is seen as a positive signal for the stock markets and investor sentiment.

Wall St climbs after selloff; Nvidia outstrips Alphabet in market value

Reuters · 1y ago

Wall St climbs after selloff; Nvidia outstrips Alphabet in market value

Wall Street rebounds after a sell-off in the previous session, with Nvidia surpassing Alphabet in market value. Core consumer prices in January remained nearly double the Fed's 2% target, leading investors to reassess rate cut expectations. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's comments provide relief regarding the path to a 2% inflation target. Expectations for rate cuts in May have decreased, while June expectations remain high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved new highs.

Business in the Week Ahead: May 6-10

Money Control

Money Control · 1y ago

The US Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates on May 1 due to slow progress in achieving their inflation target of 2%. This decision has raised uncertainty about when a rate cut may occur. Meanwhile, the central banks of Australia and the United Kingdom are also set to determine interest rates in the coming week. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England's decisions may align with the approach taken by the US Federal Reserve.

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