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India's retail inflation likely to ease by December

Reuters · 1y ago

India's retail inflation likely to ease by December

India's retail inflation is expected to decrease by December due to favorable seasonal factors, according to Finance Secretary T V Somanathan. The country's inflation rate has remained above the central bank's tolerance band for the past two months, primarily driven by sharp spikes in food prices caused by erratic weather conditions. The government aims to achieve a fiscal deficit of below 4.5% of GDP by 2025/26 and is committed to safeguarding macroeconomic interests through policy discretion.

Related News

Cooling vegetable prices help bring CPI inflation to five-month low in Jan

Business Today

Business Today · 5m ago

Cooling vegetable prices help bring CPI inflation to five-month low in Jan

In January 2025, India's retail inflation eased to 4.31%, primarily due to falling vegetable prices. Further declines are anticipated, with February inflation projected at around 4% by ICRA and 3.9%-4% by India Ratings and Research. Kotak Mahindra Bank suggests this could permit a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC, though INR depreciation should be monitored. Consumer food price inflation dropped to 6.02% in January. The RBI projects retail inflation at 4.4% for Q4 and 4.5% for Q1 FY26.

Retail inflation hits 6-year low at 2.82% in May, driven by cooling food prices

Business Today

Business Today · 1m ago

In May 2025, India's retail inflation dropped to 2.82%, the lowest since February 2019, driven by decreased food prices. Vegetable prices fell 13.7% year-on-year, and food inflation was 0.99%. Urban and rural food inflation was nearly identical at around 0.95% and 0.96%, respectively. Cereal inflation decreased to 4.77%, and pulses prices dropped by 8.22%. Overall, food and beverages inflation reached a 73-month low, with core inflation slightly easing to 4.3%.

Mint Quick Edit | Low inflation: Stoking high hopes?

Livemint

Livemint · 1m ago

Mint Quick Edit | Low inflation: Stoking high hopes?

India's retail inflation rate has dropped to under 3%, nearing the lower limit of the Reserve Bank of India's target, marking unprecedented price stability in over six years. This low inflation rate gives the RBI more room for policy maneuvers, as evidenced by its recent substantial monetary stimulus. However, how the inflation trend will develop throughout the year remains uncertain, posing a significant economic question for India.

Retail inflation hits over 6-year low of 2.10% in June; WPI turns negative

Economic Times

Economic Times · 27d ago

Retail inflation hits over 6-year low of 2.10% in June; WPI turns negative

India's retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, driven by a sharp decline in food prices, according to official data. The inflation rate now borders the lower end of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2-6%, prompting speculation about a potential rate cut. Meanwhile, the Wholesale Price Index turned negative, with food inflation moving into deflationary territory and a decline in fuel and manufactured goods prices.

Behind the dip: Unpacking June's low inflation print, in 5 charts

Livemint

Livemint · 26d ago

Behind the dip: Unpacking June's low inflation print, in 5 charts

India's retail inflation fell to a six-year low in June, driven by declining food prices and a favorable base effect, marking the eighth consecutive month of easing inflation. This decline offers relief to the Reserve Bank of India, which had struggled to maintain inflation near its 4% target. In the first quarter of FY26, inflation averaged 2.69%, 20 basis points below the RBI's projected levels, suggesting a continued easing cycle.

Why global LPs are looking to increase private credit allocations

VCCircle

VCCircle · 9m ago

Why global LPs are looking to increase private credit allocations

Global limited partners (LPs) are considering increasing their exposure to private credit strategies, according to a survey by Goldman Sachs. Despite current under-allocation, LPs are becoming more optimistic as macroeconomic conditions improve and concerns about inflation ease. The survey indicates a shift in sentiment from caution to courage. LPs are recognizing the potential opportunities in private credit and are likely to increase their allocations to this asset class in the coming years.

US tariffs to hit India's GDP growth, prompt more rate cuts

VCCircle

VCCircle · 4m ago

US tariffs to hit India's GDP growth, prompt more rate cuts

India's GDP growth is projected to slow by 20-40 basis points due to new U.S. tariffs, prompting likely further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Analysts, including Goldman Sachs and Citi, revised their growth forecasts, anticipating rate reductions to support the economy. With inflation expected close to the RBI's target, the tariffs have led to reevaluating monetary policy, focusing on growth support while managing inflation risks.

Turkey hikes interest rate again to 45% after inflation nears 65%

Ycombinator

Ycombinator · 1y ago

Turkey hikes interest rate again to 45% after inflation nears 65%

Turkey's central bank has increased its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 45% in an effort to combat double-digit inflation. This move comes as inflation in Turkey reached 64.8% in December and the country's currency, the lira, hit a record low. Analysts expect this to be the last rate hike for a while, especially with local elections approaching in March. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey indicated that this rate hike is likely the end of the tightening cycle.

RBI's policy rate cut to boost growth as inflation eases: BoB report

Economic Times

Economic Times · 2m ago

RBI's policy rate cut to boost growth as inflation eases: BoB report

The Reserve Bank of India's decision to cut the policy rate significantly aims to boost economic growth as inflation pressures ease. A Bank of Baroda report highlights that the central bank's 50 basis-point rate reduction, alongside a phased cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio, is expected to increase liquidity and support credit flow. This move aligns with global efforts to monitor growth and inflation, with attention now on the US Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions.

India inflation likely cooled in August, but still above RBI target range

Reuters · 1y ago

India inflation likely cooled in August, but still above RBI target range

Inflation in India was likely to have eased in August from a 15-month high in July, led by cooling vegetable prices, but held above the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2%-6% target for a second month, a Reuters poll found.

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