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Days ago I posted this viral theory on how UPI going down thrice in a week - 26 & 31 March and 2 April - was most likely a staged drama! 🙏🙏 Following a kind update from supergood NPCI folks about how technical failures caused the outages, I decided to pull it down. However, now that it has happened again, for 4th time in 14 days - no offence to NPCI or anyone else - but probably banks, fintechs, and maybe even the Govt deliberately pushed the system to downtime, to build the much-demanded case for Merchant Discount Rates (MDR) on large merchants (Rs 100cr+ turnover). Let’s connect the dots. .. UPI, handling 18bn transactions in March 2025 (NPCI data), is the backbone of India’s digital economy, with 83% of retail payments (RBI, 2024). Yet, it’s crashed 4 times in 14 days - That’s more than half of the 7 times it has ever gone down, apart from individual bank-related issues! Now, look at the chronology. .. On 19 March, the Govt slashed UPI subsidies from Rs 3.5k crore (FY24) to Rs 1.5k crore (FY25), a 57% cut! - Banks and fintechs, already bleeding Rs 10k crore annually to run UPI (PCI estimate), cried foul - On 24 March, the Payments Council of India wrote directly to the Prime Minister’s Office, demanding a 0.3% MDR on large merchants’ UPI transactions, arguing it’s the only way to fund infra upgrades for UPI’s growth And then - bam! - UPI fails four times in 14 days. .. Coincidence? Maybe. But, I am not convinced at heart. Banks and fintechs, from PhonePe to Paytm, have long pushed for MDR to offset costs. - And those outages, impacting millions could be a staged tantrum to pressure the Govt - Or, maybe, the Govt, already sold on MDR, needed public outrage to justify the move? Four outages right after the subsidy cut announcement screams ORCHESTRATED. During these downtimes, the internet has been full of posts, tweets, reels and videos of how small businesses lost sales and users were stranded - some even suggested carrying cash again. And I know this is a theory, but it all perfectly adds up.